Friday, 27 January 2012

Is the US economy recovering?

Its the earnings season in the US and so far companies have been reporting decent profits. Consumer confidence and industrial production in the US are also rising. The top 3 industry performer for the past 3 months are as follow:
Dow Jones U.S. Home Improvement Retailers Index
Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index
Dow Jones U.S. Building Materials & Fixtures Index

 This simply means that homes are being built in the US and people are buying homes. The demand for the market is there. Building Materials are also rising due to demand for materials needed for home construction.
 
Looking at the sector rotation model, we're somewhere in the middle of full recession and early recovery. In this stage, sectors that will potentially rise are industry and basic industrial(materials). This is in line with what is happening now in the US. IF you look at the economic curve and the market cycle curve, you will notice that the economy is starting to bottom out and the market is recovering. Do note that for this model, it is not limited by time. This means that the curve can finish within 1 year or it can also finish within a few months.

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