A former "useful idiot" who had his dream broken

Well done for doing the right thing Jack, but...don't give up the day job. Hat tip Socialist Unity

Save Lewisham Hospital A&E...Saved???

"Confusion' over Lewisham A&E future" (Steve Ford - Nursing times 31.1.13)

Accident and emergency services will remain at Lewisham Hospital but on a “smaller” scale than at present, the health secretary has announced. However, the neighbouring South London Healthcare Trust is to be broken up. The financially challenged trust is to be dissolved by October 2013 to address the risk it carries for ongoing patient care and the pressure it is placing on other parts of the NHS, Jeremy Hunt said today.

Meanwhile, following advice from NHS medical director Sir Bruce Keogh, Mr Hunt said he had decided that Lewisham Healthcare Trust would retain its A&E – though on a smaller scale than at present. South London was the first trust to be subject to the new NHS failure regime for organisations viewed as financially unsustainable.

Currently, the trust is losing more than £1m every week and by the end of this year, is expected to have an accumulated debt of more than £200m. Matthew Kershaw, former Department of Health head of provider delivery, was appointed as a special administrator last July to look into the future of the trust and its surrounding health economy. He published his final recommendations earlier this month, advising the government that South London should be broken up, but also that Lewisham’s A&E should be downgraded to an urgent care centre.

The threat to Lewisham’s A&E services sparked widespread protests from the public and NHS staff, culminating in a rally on Saturday. Mr Hunt announced today he had chosen to broadly accept the majority of Mr Kershaw’s recommendations. South London Healthcare Trust will be dissolved, with each of its hospitals – Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Woolwich, Queen Mary’s in Sidcup and the Princess Royal in Bromley – taken over by a neighbouring hospital trust.

Mr Hunt said he understood the financial rationale for downgrading Lewisham A&E, but “in the interests of local patients” had imposed some additional clinical safeguards proposed by Sir Bruce Keogh. As a result, Lewisham Hospital will retain its ability to admit patients with less serious conditions, and will continue to have 24/7 senior medical emergency cover – allowing it to remain open as a working A&E department treating up to 75% of the patients who currently use it.

Patients with much more serious conditions or higher risk pregnancies will be taken to Kings, Queen Elizabeth, Bromley or St Thomas’ because they are more likely to have a better result. Mr Hunt said: “The longstanding problems at South London Healthcare NHS Trust must not be allowed to compromise patient care in the future. Hundreds of millions of pounds have been spent on paying for debt rather than improving patient care for the local community in South East London. “What is in the clinical interests of patients in South East London has been at the heart of my decision making process, and as a result I have followed clinical advice to keep open the A&E in Lewisham.”

Sir Bruce added: “Healthcare in South East London is at a turning point. We need to strike the right balance between ensuring that all patients have access to the best possible specialist treatment whilst providing safe, effective and convenient services close to home . “I expect that balance to result in about three quarters of patients currently seen in Lewisham A&E continuing to receive complete care at Lewisham Hospital and about a quarter being transferred for more specialist treatment elsewhere.”

But Mike Davey, a nurse and Lewisham Unison branch secretary, said: “The [health] secretary needs to urgently clarify what is meant by a smaller A&E, as the London Ambulance Service will be reluctant to bring patients to an A&E that does not offer a full range of A&E services. “Is this proposal just an urgent care centre or a fully fledged and supported A&E Department,” he said. “The secretary of state has caused more confusion and the whole process is a shambles.” NHS

Confederation chief executive Mike Farrar said: “We need to learn the lessons from this case and others. The answer is to start discussions earlier, with doctors and leaders clearly explaining the case for change. “Otherwise we will find ourselves perpetually in a situation of trench warfare, with staff, politicians and patients all coming out in opposition on the streets.”

How To Become A Dealer / Sales Trader

Follow up on my posting on how to become an equity analyst, this one refers to the very uncertain, multi definition role of who and what a dealer is. It depends on the securities firm, whether they are players in the institutional business.

Let's start by defining the various dealing roles:

a) remisiers - you basically work for yourself, pass the required papers, put down at least RM50,000 or RM100,000 and you can start getting clients onto your account, you probably get 40-60 sharing on commission though some may even get 30-70, the latter being your share, you must treat this as your own business, so the question is what do you bring to the table, buying a stock from any remisier in town is the same thing, its not like buying fresh fish which may differ in quality from one stall to the other ... if you cannot clarify what your value adds are, then you will be a mediocre remisier, are you prepared to face the challenges where more and more people are trading on their own via the internet (yes, they can still be your client but the rates drop substantially)

b) company dealers - they are usually fresh grads trained inhouse to key in the orders once they have passed the requisite papers, if their skills is just in keying in orders with no client list, then they end up working for a dealer who does the sales and marketing, there are good company dealers in that they are quick and efficient, a crucial role in execution, to get to work in elite teams especially for big institutional dealing teams ... the person must be dependable, responsible, meticulous, good at math, can do some excel to tabulate average execution prices, etc...

c) dealers/dealing teams - you can be part of a dealing team that has been built by one or two enterprising dealers, they basically also work for themselves, salaries are deducted from group commissions, structure of profit share depends on negotiation skills and the kind of revenue you can generate, you get to look after private, corporate and institutional clients, again what are your value adds, if you cannot clarify them you will end up in a mediocre team ... the difference here is that usually the team do not need to put up any collateral, dealing teams are better in that you do not exist alone and has the support and newsflow and buy/sell flows from a cross section of the market, the bigger your team is the better the terms, some even get to carry positions over a few days

d) sales trader - top of the food chain, used to be called institutional dealers, but I think sales traders get paid better, employed solely by company but focuses on bigger clients usually foreign based, may concentrate on hedge funds type, usually exist only in the top tier houses and bank backed houses, the very big funds or indexed funds may only be allowed to trade with big top tiered firms and bank backed, sales traders are also part of the placement arm for IPOs and matching orders, must be able to take positions on books to bid/offer for blocks,  do switching strategies (e.g. sell KLK buy FGV) or reweighting by indexed funds

How To Start

Your parents did not spend RM50,000-RM100,000 a year for 3 years for you to come back and sit by a phone or just keying in orders into a terminal, almost like a receptionist. Many see the roles as the easiest way to earn a living. If you think like that, then I can guarantee you will be way below average.

Its a sales job. No matter how good you are if you are working from a second or third tier securities firm, you will never get the big institutional clients. Hence you need to get to a top tier house and positions there are usually not advertised. Usually they are filled by frustrated analysts, frustrated corporate finance people, frustrated xxxxxx within the securities firm. You need to know somebody who knows somebody to get the prime positions. Once inside a big top tier house, you won't want to move too often, and should only move horizontally to another top tier house.

If you are a good sales person, with good skills such as technical analysis, fundamental analysis, good spotter of movers, good trading instinct, has a good network of reliable information flow ... it doesn't matter much which type of securities firm you operate out of, then you are better off building your own team.

Best way for a fresh graduate is to join an established dealing team. You won't amount to anything being a company dealer at a third tier or fourth tier firm. The dealing team may throw you a few small clients to start with but you have to go and get your own to build your rolodex. Once you figure you have outgrown your team, then go and set up your own team. If you just rely on your team leader's clientele, you will be no more than a receptionist.

Can you learn to be a good dealer? Can you learn to be a good trader? To a certain extent yes, but that will never qualify you for success. It has to be inherent in your blood. You need to feel excited by the markets. You must want to better the markets. You must care about making the right calls. You must want to make a lot of money, not just want but really really want.

If you are a sales trader, then EQ skills are very important as you will be dealing with too many clients with big egos and small dicks. In fact that is the number one skill for a great sales trader, the other skills are just tools of trade.

So How ...

Must know why you want to become one. Must be passionate about the markets. Must like reading about stocks and business news, business personalities and business magazines. Must be open to abuse. Will need to handle high stress. Must be able to drink a bit. Must have a bit of an ego. Should be an alpha male for a guy and for a girl must be able to work with dickheads and around dickheads.

This posting ties in well with my previous take on ....

TUESDAY, JULY 17, 2012

How To Behave Like a Badass Sales Trader/Dealer/Broker

Getting into a dealing room is difficult in the first place. After the initiation period, you will have to behave accordingly in order to be a "stockbroker". Most of the behavioural traits will be inculcated via osmosis, but you can always learn some handy tricks.


Yell Occasionally - Its no point being a soft spoken, polite person, in a dealing room. You will be accorded no respect. You have to yell occasionally to voice urgency. Easy targets will be when speaking on the phone to back room or settlements - use phrases like "the deal is done, don't bother me again"; "don't bother me again, just cross it it"; etc... The other easy targets are your execution dealers, some choice phrases include: "just hit the bloody thing to the stupid buyers"; "what do you mean we are still above the average buying price, ..C'MON"; etc...


Foul Language - This is a given, its the vibe, its a must. If you are not using occasional foul language, your bosses and colleagues will think you never do deals big enough or have clients that are big swinging dicks (or dickheads in most cases). No need to do it over the phone as you try not to swear to your clients. Just pick up any research report and exclaim, "these fucking analysts know dick shit", you get the drift ... a good trick is to put the phone down and then yell "Fucker" or "Useless fucker", hey, you might not even be on the line with anyone, but your colleagues and bosses will think you are doing "good work". "Good work" meaning "taking shit from clients".

Slam the phone - You are not a good broker if you have never broken a phone before. Sometimes the PABX system board may be very expensive, in that case, take the receiver and just whack on the table a few times till it can be heard across the room. Nobody will mess with you cause you will be perceived as a badass broker-dealer-trader. Works every time.

Use Useless Abbreviations & Insiders' Lingo - Sprinkle it in your conversation especially among friends not from the industry. Examples: dog with fleas, dead cat bounce, GN4, PN17, ostrich, pig, sheep, DK, Bollinger, arb, bp, CAC40, CFD, DAX30, front loading, front running, alpha, gamma, beta, GTC, RRR, warehousing, Sharpe ratio, theta, XD ...etc..


Badass behaviour in the dealing room is accepted because you are all fighting for the same clients. Some orders you got is some orders the competition did not get. To maintain good service, acute attention must be given to order instructions and execution precision - hence if you have to ensure the down line gets the message, you will yell and shout and curse, as its your head thats on the chopping block, not theirs. 
Getting yelled at by clients are normal, and as the punching bag, you will have to take those punches. Once the phone is down, that accumulated stress has to go somewhere or you will get an early ulcer or some cancerous growth.

Drink like a Fish - Badasses drink almost every other day. Either you have a really bad day in the office - so, need a drink. Or you had a really good day - so, have to drink to celebrate. If you are not a constant drinker when you are a trader/dealer/broker, you'd probably never amount to much. But basically you have to drink like a fish to numb your soul for being around so much money thats not yours, so many assholes, so much false pretences and bad behaviour,and so many devious sycophants. 


If you have read The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli, you will know that a badass broker/dealer/trade is a true  Machiavellian. A person  who "views and manipulates others" for "personal gain, often against the other's self-interest". By reputation, stockbrokers have manipulative personalities. So do people who sell cars or houses. Its really hard to differentiate between the three.


How To Comfort Yourself - When your clients lose money, its a terrible thing and you will feel bad (for a little while). This always helped me when I was one, you will snap out of it when you repeat the mantra "Well, it could have been worse, it could have been my money, or it could have been me". Always work wonders.


How To Comfort Clients - When clients faced losses, they need to be handled. Tell them, you also suffered losses in your personal account on the same stock. Tell them another fund/client had even bigger losses than them. 

At the end of the day, a badass broker/dealer/trader is a person with high EQ (when necessary) and thinks that there is a vast gap between truth and untruths. Do you lie ??? ..., well, we don't call it lies when we are withholding some facts, ...we don't call it lying when we over exaggerate the attractiveness of a stock, ... we don't call it lying when we underplay the risk, ... we don't call it lying when we shove a placement down a client's throat because we just have to get the thing off our books.
--------------------------------------------

Question:

What does a hedge fund manager with no fund to manage say?

Answer:

Would you like fries with that sir?

A stockbroker is someone who invests your money till it's all gone!

--------------------------------------------


How to know you are not cut out to be badass:
- when you avoid calls from certain clients, if you can't face the music, you don't have the balls for the industry
- when you can't sleep well most nights worrying about positions
- when you look at yourself in the mirror coming home from work and you hate yourself
- when you feel like Spiderman in a bull market but feel like an idiot during a bear market (market cycles should have little effect on you emotionally, just the place you spend your holidays .. Mauritius or Redang)
- when you have no life apart from the markets

In the end, the financial markets, if you work in them, are just places where you help in the movement of funds from one to another. You live by the flickering lights on the screen. You stare at 4 screens the whole day and go home to stare at another screen, and if you are constantly on FB and Whatsapp, make that 6 screens - that is if you do not go to watch a movie, which would be 7 screens, what a life, screens the whole fucking day. In the end, you take your cut (or commission) with the movement of funds. You hope to value add in your service to clients via "good analysis" or "good execution" or "good information flow" ... mainly its all bull shit, and you know it too, and guess what, the client knows it too.

UNISON Pension Guru Glyn Jenkins on "smoothing" and stop "destroying" schemes

This 5 minute video "head to head" by Professional Pensions sees UNISON Head of Pensions, Glyn Jenkins, debate the recently announced Government enquiry into "smoothing" with PWC partner Jeremy Way.

Most defined benefit schemes value the present and future cost of pensions by reference to the return of government loans called gilts. Due to current abnormal market conditions these gilt returns are at a 200 year low. This means that schemes appear to have huge and unstable deficits. The enquiry is looking into arguments that instead of valuing these liabilities according to gilts they should be valued in another more relevant way.

For example by reference to the actual historic and expected return of the assets that the schemes actually invest in, not a "make believe" world that they only invest in gilts. Most pensions schemes invest in other assets such as equities  (stock and shares) not just gilts and it is reasonable to expect a much better long term return from such assets than gilts.

If they did this then the size of so called current "deficits" in many DB schemes would be slashed.

Glyn believes it would make sense to consider all scheme assets not just gilts and that the current unrealistic and inflexible "herd" or "lemmings" approach is destroying schemes. Which is actually the view of the current Pensions Minster Steve Webb.

I'm not quite sure what the conclusion of the PWC "yes but no but" argument actually is, but check it out in the the video for yourself. I suppose 5 minutes is far too short for a definitive debate but it concentrates the mind.

Why does David Cameron hate the Working Time Directive?

David Cameron has been talking a lot recently about his aim of ‘re-negotiating’ the UK’s relationship with Europe, and ‘repatriating’ regulations that originate with the EU.

The Working Time Directive is a set of work related regulations at the top of many Conservatives’ lists to overturn.

But stepping away from the EU jargon on the issue, this legislation contains a lot of very basic

Myths about Public Spending under Labour

I like this post and chart in Red Brick by Steve Hilditch about actual public spending as percentage of GDP under Labour and Conservative Governments (as opposed to the myths).

With the exception of The Labour Government 1974-79, Tory Governments (including this one) have since 1965 spent more while in power than Labour ones. Even under Thatcher and Major.

The real question is did Labour spend too little in the last government?

Stocks For Post Elections - The Flip Side

Starbiz daringly came up with 8 stocks for those who think that the government will stay in power. The reasoning being, you may see volatility or weakness in stocks as the polling date draws nearer. They are of the view that IF you think BN stays in power, the following stocks may be "collected on weakness"

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/1/29/business/12638990&sec=business

They include: Sapura Kencana, MMHE, Handal Resources, Cypark Resources, Prestariang, MYEG, CIMB and Gamuda.

My question is: Does that mean that if the opposition wins, the above 8 stocks will be hammered? Well, I think so. You cannot have your cake and eat it at the same time. The very ingredients that the writers relied upon in assessing the stocks as to why they are in favour, will also work against them if the flip side occurs.

Somehow, nobody seemed to be focused on what stocks to buy and sell should the opposition wins. Here are my selections:

COULD BE GOOD BUYS

1) TENAGA - Obviously, they have been "forced" to leak profits to IPPs. Can safely say that there will be a lot of mutual reviews and  renegotiations, and maybe cancellation when the due date comes up for some IPPs. All will be in favour of Tenaga.

2) Some Banks - If CIMB is a sell, then a more level playing field will favour the ones in 2nd-4th place in IB.


COULD BE SELLS - These are predicated on supposed changes in the competitive landscape for the major industries which will not favour the current crop of industry leaders. Industries most affected should be oil & gas, autos,  toll concessionaires

1) Sapura Kencana
2) DRB Hicom
3) MMC
4) Litrak
5) PLUS
6) Gamuda


Industry Developments

PLANTATIONS Companies - Not many are aware that there are still a number of layers involved for CPO companies when they want to export their products. I assume these layers will be dismantled. However, more rules could be implemented to ensure sustainable agriculture and to meet global best practices. Neutral.

AUTOS - Proton cars are usually around 50% cheaper overseas. Enough said.

MONOPOLIES & FIEFDOMS - Industry which currently are monopolies could be unshackled, such as flour and rice. The water concessionaires are not making our lives easier. Read between the lines.

BIG GOVERNMENT TO BE DOWNSIZED - Industries which are currently very much dominated by GLCs or government presence will be downsized as it is highly ineffective and unreasonable to have such high government presence at the expense of the private sectors. Sectors currently with very high government presence include Utilities (90%), Transportation & Warehousing (80%) and Agriculture, Banking, Communications (more than 60%).

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

Save Lewisham A&E March (26 Jan 13)

Conroy Lawrence, Lewisham Hospital UNISON Assistant Branch Secretary (and Hospital electrician) seen in picture top left with UNISON Assistant General Secretary Bronwyn McKenna. Conroy said.

"This has been a historic demonstration with of over 25,000, representing a total cross section of our community, surely this cannot be ignored by this Government, a Government who stated in their manifesto they would ensure "no forced closure of A&E Departments"

 "On behalf of Lewisham Hospital staff we would like to thank those that turnout to support us from the bottom of our hearts and we pledge ourselves to continue to fight this undemocratic and dangerous attempt to close Lewisham A&E Department for as long as it should take"

UNISON Lewisham Hospital nurse and branch secretary Mike Davy stated "If they can get away with closing Lewisham Hospital A&E, not because it is "failing", not on "clinical grounds" but to bail out a Private Finance Initiative (PFI) deal in another hospital, they can effectively close any A&E department in the country"

 "David Cameron once threatened a bare knuckle fight over Hospital A&E closures, but where is he now ?".

Kieran Quinn appointed as chair of LAPFF

The LAPFF AGM was last week. "Councillor Kieran Quinn, chair of Greater Manchester Pension Fund, has been appointed as chair of Local Authority Pension Fund Forum (LAPFF) at its annual general meeting this week.

Councillor Quinn takes over from Ian Greenwood, chair of the West Yorkshire Pension Fund, who has led LAPFF since January 2008. Councillor Cameron Rose, representing Lothian Pension Fund, and Ian Greenwood have been appointed vice-chairs of LAPFF.
In addition there are two new members of the Forum’s executive – councillor John Gray representing the London Borough of Newham pension fund, and councillor Patricia Glasman, chair of Merseyside Pension Fund.

Incoming LAPFF chair, Kieran Quinn, said: “I am very pleased to be taking over as chair of the Forum at this exciting time. Over the last few years LAPFF has grown rapidly in both membership and influence. Our work on issues such as accounting standards and remuneration reform has broken new ground, and engagements at companies such as M&S and News Corp have given us a much higher profile.”

“I would also like to pay tribute to Ian’s leadership over the past five years, during which time the Forum has made enormous strides forward. I hope I can build on Ian’s record and cement LAPFF’s position as the UK’s leading shareholder body.”

Ian Greenwood said: “Having decided to stand down as chair at this AGM, I am extremely pleased to see my friend and colleague Kieran Quinn elected. I am certain he will provide the leadership needed to take LAPFF forward. I look forward to working with him in my position as vice-chair.”

Great Harwood Health Centre - Moving forward.

Having campaigned for two years for Great Harwood Health Centre I am delighted that construction vehicles are now on site.

Great Harwood Labour Councillor Kerry Molyneux said that she "was very excited when I stepped outside the door, to take the children to school this morning, to find a digger and a wagon on the ground of the new health centre. It would appear that they are making a start on

How To Become An Equity Analyst

I get this question all the time from younger folks wanting to get a foot into the financial markets. When we talk about investment banking, we are talking about equity analysts, sales traders and investment banking (corporate finance included) primarily. IB basically are the guys (gals) who meet with company owners listed/private and getting them to do deals which may include listings, corporate exercises such as rights, warrants, bonds, placements and/or M&A deals. Sales traders are the new fangled name for institutional dealers of the past. Sales traders deal with flows from clients, placements and basic buys and sells orders. It can get tricky with switching strategies, reweighting and ability to take on positions on books. I will talk about the IBs and sales traders in later postings.

Today its how to be an equity analyst. The easiest way, well not really easy, is to get a good degree from a good university. The named universities such as the Ivy league, plus the LSE, Oxcam or Sydney University or Melbourne University is a start. There are the second tiered ones such as Monash University, UNSW ... and you must score well. Most top houses will at least grant you an interview.

The most important subject to take is accounting. If you don't like accounting, forget it. You must be very good at Excel, if you hate spreadsheets, this is not for you. Get your niche early, know one or two industries very well.

If you are like me, screwing around during university and getting so-so results, there are plenty of ways to get your foot in as well.

a) Get a good internship - Use your contacts, your network, hope your parents know some BSDs at some investment banks. An internship at any top 10 brokers would do well on your resume. If you get your internship, don't just do what's been told to you. Ask around and get to know the BSDs in the right department. Hint that you want a starting position when you graduate, failing which, its OK to beg.

b) Do your CFA - This is the best route if you come from a university not in the top 100, and/or your results are so so only. Once you land a "business type" position, enroll and try to pass all the papers. It always look better if you can put in your resume, passed CFA Level 1, completing Level 2 etc... May not get you into the top 10 houses but getting into a local one even is a foot in. Get your foot in first.

c) Specialise - Do you want to be an equity analyst because you heard it pays well, or do you have a passion for analysing industries and companies? If its the former, you'd probably won't make much of yourself even if you get in. All analysts end up covering one, two sectors at most. Do your research, you can go the indirect route by specialising in plantations or banks, or semiconductors or technology, or mining etc... If you have spent 3 years at a plantations firm doing relevant work, you will be familiar with the parameters for that industry, what they look at, how to get the data and make predictions. 

To be an analyst in Malaysia is a small thing, if you can, work yourself into a regional position. Know the regional stocks as well. The big money is in becoming a regional something. You may have to move to HK or Singapore for those roles, except if you are in plantations, which you can basically look at companies in Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. The best paid person in IB, for sure is the top notch analyst ... look for the person who covers only ONE stock, e.g. Samsung or BHP ... they are paid over a million USD a year.

How to ace that interview:

a) Speak well - Besides researching and writing abilities, you need to speak well as all good analysts will have to speak to fund managers sometime. Your command of English must be good and your verbal skills as well.

b) Convincing - Be passionate, don't come to an interview even for a junior position without knowing anything. Must say you have deep interest in one or two industries, and you will be grilled further, and you must know your stuff. How? Read a few industry and companies research reports and things must roll off your tongue. If you can't even do that, then you better hope and pray you are a very pretty girl. (...its still a male dominated domain).

In the end, getting in is tough, once in you can move up by networking with better houses. Write good research reports that brings value to readers. I would say only 1 out of 5 analysts starting out become good ones, the rest just stick around and at best become Senior Analysts after 5 years but cannot progress.

To make it, you have to be early in calls, and be right most of the time. You have to be vocal. If you do not have the "stuff" to do that, then you will not make much headway. You have to get closer and closer to the company owners. You have to stick around at conferences and industry sessions. You have to write well, you have to be PERSUASIVE. You have to make a name for yourself. You are your own brand, the house is just a shell. Brand yourself first. 

Its not everybody's cup of tea, its a high stress job, you work 12 hours a day, everyday there's updates, results ... you keep spreadsheets that run pages and pages, you have little time for socialising. Your job is never secure, you can get laid off when times are bad (i.e. every 3 years), the higher you go the harder it is to find similar positions when there is a crisis or market contraction. So you better be very good at what you do. 

Analysts get crucified all the time. Sales traders think you are useless paper pushers who cannot hack it in the real time wheeling and dealing. IBs think you are their lackey boys to support whatever corporate exercises they are doing. Bosses think you are a huge mf cost center. Good luck!

Tackling cannabis farms - SSE reply

Holocaust Memorial Day 2013

Today (27 January) is Holocaust Memorial Day.  This date is the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz concentration camp in 1945.

On Friday morning I was travelling through Liverpool Street Railway station and the statutes of the "Kindertransport" children next to the main ticket office, reminded me of the 9,500 children who were allowed to flee Germany before the Second World War and live in Britain.

Many of them arrived in Liverpool Street station from Harwich. The vast majority would have died in German concentration camps if they had not been able to flee. Many never saw their parents again.

While 80% of the children were Jewish, the rest were children of anti-fascists who also knew what would happen to their children if they did not escape.

Newham Council and the Mayor, Sir Robin Wales, held an event on Friday morning to unite communities and reflect on the horrors of Nazi atrocities.

On Saturday I received through the post, the latest edition of UK anti-fascist magazine, Searchlight.  Reading in the magazine the accounts of current fascist activity in the UK, you must be amazed and sickened, that there are still Nazi's in our country, such as the those in the BNP, who think there is nothing wrong with mass murder and turning dead bodies into lamp shades and soap.

Save Lewisham Hospital Protest March! Today 12 noon start!

BIG MARCH EXPECTED IN PROTEST AT LEWISHAM A&E CLOSURE
 
"UNISON the UK’s largest union, is calling on the public to join a march this Saturday (26 Jan), to show their support for Lewisham Hospital’s A & E Department.

Lewisham’s A & E facility is pencilled in for closure as a result of a massive over spend in nearby South London Healthcare Trust's hospitals.

The closure plan is in spite of pre-election pledges by the Conservatives to “stop all forced hospital A&E departments”.

The union is expecting a massive turn-out, with local team Millwall FC postponing a match kick-off to accommodate expected attendance.

The march will take place on:
Saturday 26 January From Lewisham Train station
Starting at 12.00pm

UNISON Nursing Officer, Michael Walker said:

“We are urging local people to come out on Saturday and show their support for this much-valued A & E Department. Everyone has a stake in this protest and we’re expecting a massive attendance with placards from every section of Lewisham including churches, pensioner groups, schools, nurseries and workplaces”.

Conroy Lawrence, UNISON representative at the hospital:

“We would urge the Secretary of State for Health, Jeremy Hunt, to watch the events on Saturday in Lewisham closely, to listen to what the people of Lewisham are saying, and to study the detailed opposition to the closure proposals put forward by all sections of the medical and nursing profession”.

Mike Davey, UNISON Branch Secretary states:

“It is a credit to hospital staff that they are working as normal providing a professional service despite the threat to this hospital. NHS Administrator Mr Kershaw has ignored the 90% of respondents to the consultation on the hospitals future but Jeremy Hunt should not ignore the deep concerns of the medical and nursing professions and from the public”.

Michael Walker, UNISON Nursing Officer:

“Lewisham hospital is currently taking on extra patients from hospitals including Queen Elizabeth Hospital (Woolwich) and Princess Royal University Hospital (Farnborough) such is the pressure on acute services in South London. There is no way that this closure will not have a devastating impact on local people.”

UNISON has received reports that patients from nearby A&E departments are already experiencing long delays and patients are being diverted to Lewisham Hospital.

These closures are driven not on clinical grounds but on massive reductions in NHS funding, exacerbated by the disastrous Private Finance Initiative which has bankrupted so many hospitals".

My speech on the Private Rented Sector Wednesday

This Wednesday I spoke in the Opposition Day debate on the Private Rented Sector, it was an incredibly useful debate which really hit home some of the pressures that people who rent their homes face on a daily basis. In the concluding speech, Don Foster, the Government Minister responding to the debate stated : “The hon. Member for Hyndburn (Graham Jones) talked about the need to review the

My week in Parliament

Summary of this week in Parliament: · Urgent Question on armed forces redundancies · Government Statement on A-level reform · Opposition Day debate on Blacklisting · Opposition day debate on the private rented sector · Succession to the Crown Bill, Second Reading · Government Statement on the terrorist attack in Algeria · Backbench business

"An Economy for One Nation": Stephen Timms MP & Heather Wakefield (UNISON)

This should be good. East Ham MP Stephen Timms (Shadow Minister for Employment) and UNISON, Head of Local Government Heather Wakefield debate "An Economy for One Nation" and how progressive can the next Labour Government be?

Accrington Observer Column

First of all I’d like to wish all residents the very best for 2013. With the economy struggling you can rest assured the chambers of commerce, the Council, myself and other business organisations are doing all we can to make East Lancashire more prosperous. The direct rail link to Manchester begins construction this year with the first service due to begin in 14 months time. I am currently

Is a two state solution an ambition that is fading away?

Updated 21/01/2013 following Binyamin Netanyahu's comments

Just weeks away from the Israeli elections, a resolution to the Israel Palestine conflict appears more remote than ever. On my visit to Israel it became apparent, particularly when talking to the Western and Israeli media, that the notion of a two-state solution is dying with Israel’s ongoing expansionist policies in the West Bank.

Cameron's Speech on Europe "in or out"

I think Prime Minster David Cameron is playing with fire since he clearly does not want to leave EU. In fact nearly all his arguments in favour of the EU I would agree with, while I would disagree with nearly all his reasons for leaving.

It is not statesmanship but it is clever politics. I think this will put Labour in a difficult place for the next election.

The real trouble is that it is too easy to knock the EU, because it is dysfunctional in so many ways and does need radical reform (wasteful Common Agriculture Policy, the shameful ongoing failure to have audited accounts, the 2 separate parliamentary sites etc). Pro-Europeans need to face up to this.

So it needs desperately to reform but if the UK does leave, is this a cut to your nose to spite all our faces?

Cameron should be in a strong position to get his way within the EU since the Euro countries also need drastic political change to save their currency and UK could make things difficult (or rather make things even more difficult) unless they play ball.

So this is not a good day for Europe or democracy.

The public can vote on Europe in 2015, at the next British General Election. Let the batty UKIP stand on its own merits and and see if they win a majority of MPs mandated to leave. That should be our way of deciding such things.

Lambeth UNISON Local Government AGM 2013

Picture of the Ritzy Cinema, which is opposite Lambeth Town Hall and was today the Annual General Meeting venue for my 2nd favourite UNISON Local Government branch ever, Lambeth!

Sincere congratulations, of course, to my fellow Labour Party comrades, JR and Ruth, who were elected joint branch secretaries!

My invitation to speak to the meeting must somehow have been "lost in the post".

:)

Save Lewisham A&E March this Saturday 26 January

"UNISON expresses bitter disappointment that TSA Matthew Kershaw has chosen to ignore the unprecedented response to the recent consultation exercise in respect of his health proposals across Lewisham and the South London Healthcare Trust.

In doing so he disregards a number of compelling clinical arguments in favour of the retention of emergency and maternity services on the Lewisham site.

Whilst the political arguments are taken to the heart of government by our local Labour Party MPs, and the Secretary of State deliberates on the final decision, UNISON is urging all of its members to join in the march and rally on Saturday 26th January.

Come and march with your local UNISON branch and join with UNISON colleagues from across South London in demonstrating against the proposed down grading of our local emergency and maternity services.

The march will pass by the hospital and terminate in Mountsfield Park around 14.00, with live music and various speakers, including UNISON Greater London Deputy Regional Convenor (and Lewisham's very own) Conroy Lawrence.

Assemble under the UNISON Greater London Regional banner on the roundabout by Lewisham Station from 12.00 on Saturday 26th January.

In the meanwhile UNISON will be making a further submission to the Secretary of State drawing attention to the powerful arguments made in our consultation response previously submitted to Matthew Kershaw.

As others have already commented, we need to maximise turnout at this march and rally in order deliver a resounding statement to the Secretary of State before he makes his final decision.

Please make every effort to support this event and I look forward to joining with you all on the 26th".

Mike Davey
Lewisham Hospital Branch Secretary

Dilbert Compilation Part Dua

Wow! Didn't realise I did so many Dilbert cartoon mash ups. This is the second compilation of my gag Dilbert cartoons. I keep doing that I will have enough for a book soon, but then will have to talk to Dilbert's owner about royalties.

Maybe Only In Japan

CEOs who behave with integrity and share the burden of their employees, a collective kind of leader ... and he is not even an owner. Only in Japan.

When They Were Young & Not-Yet-Famous

Rihanna


Bruno Mars


Lady Gaga


Snoop Dog


Jennifer Lopez


Kanye West


Avril Lavinge


Adele


Prince


Beyonce


Bruce Springsteen

"Will no one rid me of these turbulent Member Trustees!"

I've been sent a rather odd and disturbing link to a story here on "Engaged Investor" magazine's website.

In which a pension consultant is quoted as saying he understands that the Government is maybe thinking of getting rid of Member Nominated trustees who sit on Pension scheme Boards???

So who will replace the  representatives of those who actually pay into the pension scheme and act as the owners of their capital? Let me think now? - perchance, more highly paid consultants?

The timing seems most peculiar, since the Government has recently agreed to a significant increase in member nominated representatives (MNR) in the Local Government Pension Scheme and is making promising noises about giving more powers to MNRs in Governance Committees for Contract based pensions schemes and Master trusts. I fully expect the next Labour Government to continue with this process.

I actually support the important role played by professional advisers and consultants in running pension schemes and think many of them are honourable and genuinely want to do the right thing for us. However, there is no getting away from the fact that we have the fiduciary duty to our beneficiaries and they do not.

But as the full article in Engaged Investor makes clear, never forget the reason, why the requirement for member nominated trustees came about in the first place. The picture above is of Bob Maxwell in his famous yacht a year before his death, who stole hundreds of millions of pounds belonging to pensioners.This resulted in legislation that requires at least 1/3 of member trustees make up the Board.

The institution of trusteeship in this country is centuries old and although not perfect is still fit for purpose. Our primary role is to ensure that the money we hold in trust is held for the benefit of the beneficiaries and not be totally ripped off by those who are paid to manage our money. Even Adam Smith (not someone I normally cite on this blog) would have understood this.

In the past some trustees have not been properly trained and supported and have been held back on Boards. The requirement to have member representation and the growth of trustee based organisations such as the TUC Trustee network and especially the Association of Member Nominated Trustees (AMNT) will help counter these problems.  

Anyone who opens a newspaper or who turns on the telly to watch the news, will be aware on practically a daily basis, that we actually need more member trustees and representatives looking after all aspects of our money - not less.

UMA On Bursa

This was a really funny quip, somebody suggested that an UMA should be issued to the Bursa for yesterday's market weakness. Well, truth be told, the market had its biggest single day drop since October 2011, plus it was unusual market activity, and thirdly nobody can really say for sure why.

Sure there is speculation about the reasons, but its pretty much like a deserving UMA to me. If you were to ask Bursa, they'd probably reply: "We are not aware of any unusual or material developments".

So, UMA it is to Bursa. You fall some more, we will issue a second UMA or designate all stocks ok.

Seriously, its about elections. Tell us something we don't know. It has to be held soon. How far will it go down to prior to election day. I think its more likely to be closer to 1500 than 1550. Thats just my view.

If opposition wins, we may see a knee jerk quick sell down to 1450 to be followed by a swift rebound provided the transition of power is smooth. If not, we could be in for more uncertainty and downside.

Its all necessary as in birthing pains, but it will all turn out well ...

Assuming the opposition wins, and power transition was smooth, I believe funds will flow back almost instantaneously within weeks. It is not as dire or nasty as some make it out to be. All I am worried about is the transition of power process be smooth.

A cleaner government, better management of resources, more transparency, less leakages ... how not to attract more funds? It will not be perfect, they will make mistakes, there will even be cases of corruption and mismanagement, but I think they will be a lot fewer and lesser in quantum. How not to have a vibrant post election market?

The Leaning Tree of Wansted Park

Off message but went for a great snow patrol today in Wansted Flats and Wansted Park. Picture above of the leaning tree (right) at the bottom of the Long walk which has seemed in danger of falling into the lake for years. Its branches are just about touching the water.

I'm trying to upload more photos to Facebook but it keeps crashing at the moment. Will post link when it works. Due to the clouds and snow most of the pictures seem to be in black and white.

UNISON Community District Nurses out there serving the public

Great pictures from Captain Swing of London Community district nurses struggling through the snow on Friday to visit their patients.

This Tory coalition think that such public servants should have their wages cut and cut while at the same time reducing taxes for millionaires?

Something fundamentally wrong here I think?

Woodnook on TV again

BBC TV's The One Show will be broadcasting a feature on Woodnook on Tuesday.


Labour have begun the regeneration of Woodnook after over a decade of abandonment by the Tories. The pioneering scheme done with far less resources than previous Tory Councils had at their disposal is attracting national attention.


BBBTV News filmed a feature two weeks ago. The national media's attention on

Love Trains: Hate High Fares Valentine’s Day Action

"Kick off Valentine’s Day with our action for low fares.

On 2 January, rail fares soared above inflation for the tenth year running. They have increased almost three times faster than wages and are now 26% higher than they were before the recession. Is it any wonder we pay more than anywhere else in Europe? Our #FareFail campaign took to the streets and stations of Britain and thousands of commuters got involved to express their view. The actions also received great friendly national and local media coverage, and a very positive reaction from commuters, who took up thousands of our campaign postcards.

The government response was to turn a blind eye to rail passenger anger. Transport minister Norman Baker told us fares were “not nearly as expensive” as presented! On 9 January the government defeated a parliamentary motion opposing the fares increase.

Well, we don’t know about you, but we’ve had enough. If we want change we’ve got to keep the pressure up.

On 14 February, the international day of love, we’re going back to the travelling public with one simple message:

“Love Trains, Hate High Fares!”
And we need your help to do it.

And as it’s Valentine’s Day, why not pledge to bring a loved one with you too!
We can only stop the era of rip-off fares if we show those in charge how strongly we feel. Please get involved with the campaign today.

We want to be at as many railway stations as possible on the morning of 14 February, between 7.30 and 9.30am. If you can volunteer, register here:"

Value Traps & NTA Plays

Following Inch Kenneth meteoric surge, some readers have been so kind to send me emails about other great value stocks, e.g. Landmarks, Selangor Dredging, etc ... Dear all, stocks that trade at massive discounts are aplenty. You cannot just point to any one and say that's a good investment. It has a lot to do with proper usage of capital by investors. Why lock up your capital in a non performing great asset? The key is there must be a CATALYST to unlock value, something must be happening to unlock that value.




Those who have been in the markets long enough will understand the term "value trap". It is when you buy and hold something for the longest time because there is great inherent value. However the investor does not know when will the hidden values be unlock by management and/or owners. 

Hence investors who are wiser will always bear in mind the "value trap", being locked into something for the longest time, sometimes years. Let's look at: 

Kuchai Development 

Its basically a holding company. Its got a substantial stake of 26% in palm oil Sg Bagan and a highly attractive 3m shares of Great Eastern (traded now btw S$15-16). All in the total net asset value for Kuchai Development is around RM260m. It has 120.7m shares (50 sen), which makes for a NAV of RM2.47. Guess what's the share price??? Its just 1.20. How to go wrong?

Technically you have to outlive the owners or wait till they finally decide to do something with their shares. When looking at a value company, the first thing to check is the shareholdings level. For Kuchai: 

Kluang Rubber 41.9% 
Sg Bagan 9.38% 
Lee Foundation 4.18% 
Kota Trading 1.77% 



The top 3 are basically the same group of people and they made doubly sure they have more than 50% as that will stop anyone thinking of raiding the company. So if someone comes along and collect shares and then make a G.O. at RM1.60, he/she will not succeed as long as the controlling shareholders do not sell. They will probably sell if someone comes along and offer a substantive premium to NAV, say RM2.60-2.80 or thereabouts. The value is in the NAV and then the listing vehicle as a value add. 

Once the owner controls more than 50%, there's very little you can do. If you can locate a value company and there is ample free float, plus the controlling shareholder holds less than 35%, then I bet you that many vultures will be circling to take over the company, thus narrowing the gap between NAV and the share price.

It might be OK to hold on forever if the company pays a decent dividend, but in Kuchai's case it paid 0.8 sen in 2008 and 0.45 sen in 2009. If you take the share price of 80 sen  then, that works out to be a paltry dividend yield of 1% and 0.56%. Really no incentive to own this stock.


Stock               Share Price / NAV
Minho                 0.54 / 2.67
Mitrajaya            0.44 / 0.79
Pasdec                0.32 / 1.81
Advance Synergy  0.15 / 0.89
Majuperak           0.28 / 1.23
Eupe                   0.57 / 1.99
Focal Aims           0.37 / 1.17
Xian Leng            0.31 / 0.91
PW Cons             0.45 / 2.10
BCB                   0.40 / 1.69
Ekowood             0.18 / 0.73
Kia Lim               0.34 / 1.08
Prinsiptek            0.22 / 1.00
Rex Industry        0.62 / 1.92
KPSC                  0.39 / 1.26
Mycron Steel        0.34 / 1.43
Jerasia Capital     0.56 / 1.44
Cymao                0.31 / 1.47


I can go on and on ... for another 100 more at least ...



CAVEATS

These are not recommendations at all, just to highlight those with massive discounts to NTA. Besides the discount, one must look at a few things:
a) the quality of assets under its NTA, whether they are readily realisable or industry specific sunk cost (e.g. steel mills)
b) the real burn rate of an imploding company, many companies with discounts are because investors are dumping stocks of a deteriorating company which will be making significant amount of losses over the next few years just by hanging around, an imploding business model (let's not mention names la) .... then the discount is actually JUSTIFIED
c) there are material litigation which may cause future losses and liabilities



Dear SC & Bursa: I really think that there is a strong case for the SC and Bursa to come down hard on Kuchai because it does not resemble a normal company with on-going businesses. Its strictly a holding company. It does NOT allow shareholders to participate in the growth of the company, it just holds the stakes forever. It does NOTHING to extract value from their inherent value. 

To me, its like a company which has sold all businesses and sits on cash. In this case, the cash is the assets. Yes, we are treading on uncharted waters here when I advocate that SC & Bursa put in a proactive move to reinvigorate stocks like Kuchai ... but we can certainly draw up some stringent parameters, and if they are long drawn out inactive management presiding over deep value assets ... then issue a GOOD no-UMA, further inaction give them a delisting notice. We already have rules that forces companies to have a decent free float, we have rules that prohibits a company from sitting on cash forever, rules that warn companies if they are too inactive in volume traded ... all wanting a properly regularised market place to safeguard investors. Companies like Kuchai makes a mockery of being a listed company.

For companies like Kuchai, I would suggest that they need to sell down their company from above 50% effective stake to below 40% within 2 years, and then to below 35% within 4 years. One, it makes for better liquidity, two... it puts the company in play, three ... the owners will finally do something to extract value instead of doing nothing. Sounds like a great idea but will never get passed for being too radical. Still, worth thinking about it than doing nothing.

Some may say so is Berkshire Hathaway - in Buffett's case, he actively manages his positions, positions will be sold once they reach above fair value and vice versa. Kuchai's position makes a mockery of being a listed counter - anyone in their right mind would be 100x better off to invest directly into Great Eastern or Sg Bagan - there is absolutely no value to its existence.

Grandjean Truffles

A good friend of mine has been bringing in the exclusive and "to-die-for" handmade whisky truffles from Switzerland for sometime now. She has a steady flow of happy clientele who will order tons of them for gift-giving during festive seasons. Good things should be shared, if you are cracking your heads over what to send as gifts for this CNY, you should seriously consider Grandjean Truffles.

Happy Chinese New Year to all chocolate lovers and welcome to the Year of the Snake! Although it might seem an age since we celebrated the arrival of the calendar new year and moved in 2013, the most important festival in Chinese culture is now upon us and it is time to celebrate once again.

The Chinese New Year is not only the most important Chinese celebration but it is also the longest so make sure you celebrate it in style this year by offering high quality but affordable luxury gifts to your friends, family and colleagues.

 

Whisky truffles gift black box – RM 160

Contains 10 pieces of whisky truffles 

Choose our famous GRANDJEAN handmade Whisky Truffles! Delicious and rich, these truffles are a beautiful gift to help put the events of the past year behind you, starting afresh and forgetting old grudges.

Be ready for the first new moon of the lunar calendar and celebrate the Chinese New Year in style with us!

Order your Grandjean Whisky Truffles now and get them delivered a few days before CNY.

Petit G  RM100

Baby G  RM50

 PLACE YOUR ORDER NOW!

Email us at ordergrandjean@gmail.com or  Visit www.grandjeanfreres.com

Pickup at Centerpoint @ Bandar Utama at no extra cost.

Delivery charges will apply for delivery to other areas within the Klang Valley.